Spy leak raises questions: Should Putin be afraid?
Published 06.01
Vladimir Putin's fear of being assassinated by drones or overthrown by coup plotters is growing - at least according to leaked spy information.
Analysts see signs of cracks and some grains of truth in it. They also wonder why it is being leaked now.
An intelligence report from an EU country - it is not clear which one - has been leaked to three news media: Russian iStories (Vazhnye Istorii), American CNN and British Financial Times.
It states that security around Vladimir Putin has been tightened considerably since the beginning of the year. It says that Putin himself fears that someone in the upper echelons of power will try to assassinate him using drones.
Every person who is to meet Putin is said to have to undergo double security checks. Employees in his vicinity are said to be prohibited from using connected phones or traveling by public transport. Some are said to have had surveillance cameras installed in their homes.
Meeting after assassination
The report describes tensions in Russia's upper echelons of power. It says that several of the country's top security officials met on Christmas Day last year - three days after a Russian general was killed by a car bomb in central Moscow.
It says that the military's chief of staff, Valery Gerasimov, has blamed the bombing on the FSB security service. FSB chief Aleksandr Bortnikov is said to have complained about a lack of resources. President Putin is said to have placed ten generals under constant surveillance.
The media outlets publishing the information claim to have been able to corroborate parts of it – such as Putin’s growing fear of being assassinated – through other sources. iStories has a source within the FSB who says that surveillance is increasingly being directed at government officials. And this year, Putin has not visited military bases close to the front, as he has done in the past.
Directed at Putin?
Other details – such as Putin staying in bunkers for weeks at a time and that the deposed former defense minister Sergei Shoigu is a possible coup plotter – are all the more questionable.
The media outlets that received the information also ask open questions about why it was leaked: The purpose could be to intimidate or sow division – but in that case, why reveal the threats and risk their sources?
Andrey Pertsev, a commentator for the news site Meduza, is skeptical of the information about coups, at least when it becomes public in this way. In a conversation with iStories editor-in-chief Roman Anin, he nevertheless interprets the leak as a message to Vladimir Putin.
– “Your throne is slipping away,” they tell him. “You know why. Stop fighting,” says Pertsev.
Anin believes that it could be a kind of signal to the Russian president: Step down while you still have the chance.
FACTS
Putin’s closest associates
Vladimir Putin is surrounded by loyalists. There are long-time friends and “siloviki” – leaders who have emerged from the often violent security apparatus – as well as others who are entrusted with running the war machine and protecting power:
Nikolai Patrushev: Special presidential advisor with great strategic influence. Succeeded Putin as head of the KGB’s successor, the FSB.
Aleksandr Bortnikov: Long-time friend of Putin who has been head of the FSB since 2008.
Viktor Zolotov: Originally Putin’s bodyguard. Heads the militarily equipped National Guard that reports to the president.
Andrey Belousov: Bureaucrat and Minister of Defense. Came in from the sidelines to run the war economy after Sergei Shoigu poked.
Alexei Dyumin: Also a former bodyguard to Putin. Climbing into positions of power as one of the president's most confidants. Leads the country's governors in the State Council.
Dmitry Kochnev: Putin's "gatekeeper" as head of the FSO security service. The FSO also monitors other parts of the security apparatus.
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