Niger
Hangover could provide next hotspot for Islamist terrorWolfgang Hansson
This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.
Published 19.35
The military in Niger last year. Photo: Sam Mednick / AP
Somewhat quietly, the Western world is heading towards a serious hangover in an important part of Africa.
The US withdraws its troops from Niger. Ejected by the new military junta.
The former colonial power France is also forced to withdraw from countries in the Sahel region.
Countries that may soon become new terror strongholds and where Russia and China are advancing their positions.
Quick version
For the past ten years, parts of the Western world have invested heavily in stopping the progress of violent Islamism in the Sahel, the part of Africa that lies immediately south of North Africa and runs from Senegal in the west to Eritrea in the east.
France sent several thousand troops to Mali, at the request of the local rulers, to prevent groups linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State from overthrowing the civilian government.
France sent several thousand troops to Mali, at the request of the local rulers, to prevent groups linked to al-Qaida and the Islamic State from overthrowing the civilian government.
The UN sent a peacekeeping force where Sweden also contributed soldiers for a number of years.
The US built a military base in Niger six years ago after reaching a security agreement with the country's then leader. The task of the American troops was to promote the work against terrorism.
But even if these operations were to some extent a military success, they did not contribute to improving the economic conditions in a very poor part of the world where many young people lack work. At the same time, the Sahel is the area in the world where population growth is the fastest.
Large numbers of unemployed young men are a perfect breeding ground for movements looking to recruit suicide bombers and militiamen into their terror armies.
Add to that the fact that the civil government in these countries has often been very weak and fragile.
Russians welcome
Military coups have since 2020 been carried out in Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso and Guinea. The coup plotters have exploited anti-colonial sentiments directed primarily against France.
Moods fueled by disinformation campaigns from above all Russia but also from China.
Therefore, it did not come as a great surprise when the US recently announced that it agrees to the new military junta's demand to dismantle its military base in Niger and withdraw its approximately one thousand soldiers from the country. In practice, you had no choice.
The US retreat comes at the same time as Russian military has been welcomed into Niger to train the army on an air defense system the country bought from Russia.
The Russian soldiers belong to the new Russian Afrika Korps, a successor to the Wagner group, which established itself in many African countries by offering armed protection to the local rulers in exchange for mining rights.
China is trying more to buy influence. The military junta in Niger recently announced that China paid just over four billion kroner in advance for oil from the Agadem field.
That former colonies try to find partners other than their old colonial powers is perhaps not surprising.
Military coups have since 2020 been carried out in Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso and Guinea. The coup plotters have exploited anti-colonial sentiments directed primarily against France.
Moods fueled by disinformation campaigns from above all Russia but also from China.
Therefore, it did not come as a great surprise when the US recently announced that it agrees to the new military junta's demand to dismantle its military base in Niger and withdraw its approximately one thousand soldiers from the country. In practice, you had no choice.
The US retreat comes at the same time as Russian military has been welcomed into Niger to train the army on an air defense system the country bought from Russia.
The Russian soldiers belong to the new Russian Afrika Korps, a successor to the Wagner group, which established itself in many African countries by offering armed protection to the local rulers in exchange for mining rights.
China is trying more to buy influence. The military junta in Niger recently announced that China paid just over four billion kroner in advance for oil from the Agadem field.
That former colonies try to find partners other than their old colonial powers is perhaps not surprising.
Antidote
The USA and the rest of the Western world have tried to find an antidote but so far have not succeeded. Probably because the West only had two goals with its efforts, to counter terrorism and stop migration from the area to the West. Very little has gone into trying to improve the economic and social conditions in the countries.
Something that led to the population kicking back.
The military juntas prefer to cooperate with great powers such as China and Russia, which do not make any difficult demands on human rights and democracy.
But can't we just turn our backs on these countries and let them fend for themselves as they please?
The problem is that developments in this part of the world can have a major impact on our own future.
The USA and the rest of the Western world have tried to find an antidote but so far have not succeeded. Probably because the West only had two goals with its efforts, to counter terrorism and stop migration from the area to the West. Very little has gone into trying to improve the economic and social conditions in the countries.
Something that led to the population kicking back.
The military juntas prefer to cooperate with great powers such as China and Russia, which do not make any difficult demands on human rights and democracy.
But can't we just turn our backs on these countries and let them fend for themselves as they please?
The problem is that developments in this part of the world can have a major impact on our own future.
Islam is the main religion in most countries. They are already infiltrated to some extent by al-Qaeda, the Islamic State and other terrorist movements. As the West loses its influence and watchful eye in these countries, they can easily develop into new terrorist strongholds, even if the military says they are fighting the militant Islamist groups. The strongholds that in the future can be used to plan acts of terror in the West as happened during the Taliban's rule in Afghanistan and the ISIS-ruled caliphate in Syria and Iraq.
With Niger, the EU had an agreement to stop migrants from getting on to Europe. That agreement no longer applies, which could result in increased migrant flows.
With Niger, the EU had an agreement to stop migrants from getting on to Europe. That agreement no longer applies, which could result in increased migrant flows.
Threatened to invade
The military dictatorships also risk undermining the development towards democracy in this part of the world.
One small glimmer of light was that Senegal recently held a democratic election in which the incumbent president lost but orderly handed over power to his challenger. Something that is unfortunately a rarity in Africa.
The region's own institutions have tried to force the military junta to return power to the civilian rulers.
The West African Cooperation Organization Ecowas threatened to invade Niger with a military force to topple the junta. But the threat was never carried out.
Instead, the area continues to sink deeper into instability that could backfire on the West later on.
According to the Global Terrorist Index, the Sahel region accounted for about half of all terror-related deaths last year.
It does not
The military dictatorships also risk undermining the development towards democracy in this part of the world.
One small glimmer of light was that Senegal recently held a democratic election in which the incumbent president lost but orderly handed over power to his challenger. Something that is unfortunately a rarity in Africa.
The region's own institutions have tried to force the military junta to return power to the civilian rulers.
The West African Cooperation Organization Ecowas threatened to invade Niger with a military force to topple the junta. But the threat was never carried out.
Instead, the area continues to sink deeper into instability that could backfire on the West later on.
According to the Global Terrorist Index, the Sahel region accounted for about half of all terror-related deaths last year.
It does not
Inga kommentarer:
Skicka en kommentar