Russia's invasion of Ukraine
First of two slaps for Zelenskyj
Niclas Vent
Reporter
This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.
Published 06.19
As Russia pushes from the front, the contours of a political collapse are beginning to take shape behind Ukrainians' backs.
The big slap in the mouth risks landing in six months.
But as early as Sunday, Zelenskyj can get his first serious cleaning.
The big winners in the EU elections look to be the far-right parties.
In a forecast from the European Council for Foreign Relations (ECFR), the party group Identity and Democracy (ID) is expected to increase by nearly 70 percent, from 58 to 98 of the mandates in the parliament.
In the long run, it is ominous for Ukraine.
In most votes in the EU Parliament on political and economic aid to Ukraine, it is precisely the fringe parties that have gone against the broad support for Ukraine.
In seveeal key Ukraine votes, a majority of ID members have voted no or abstained, joined by non-party right-wing extremists from, for example, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Italy.
Some of the members of the left have also wavered, but unlike the extreme right, their parties are expected to go backwards in the election.
ID includes parties such as Marine Le Pen's National Assembly from France, the Italian Lega, the Austrian Freedom Party and the Danish People's Party.
As a group, they are to the right of the Sweden Democrats.
The parties that go to the polls on continued support for Ukraine are expected to take 536 out of 720 seats in the parliament, according to ECFR's forecast.
But support for Ukraine is not as solid as it appears.
There are obvious cracks in the facade.
When the ECFR polled 17,023 people in 12 EU countries in January, only 1 in 10 believed Ukraine could win the war.
Ukraine should be pressured to make peace with Russia, thought a majority of the inhabitants of Hungary, Greece, Italy and Romania.
Substantial minorities in Austria (49.4 percent), Germany (41 percent), the Netherlands (36.7 percent), Spain (33.1 percent) and Sweden (31.3 percent) agreed.
The EU's own measurements point to broad support for Ukraine – 60 percent, for example, are in favor of the EU purchasing and donating military equipment.
But regardless of which question is asked, support is weaker today than six months ago.
Geert Wilder's PPV in the Netherlands and Robert Fico's Smer in Slovakia are parties that recently won elections on the will to stop Ukraine support.
There are obvious cracks in the facade.
When the ECFR polled 17,023 people in 12 EU countries in January, only 1 in 10 believed Ukraine could win the war.
Ukraine should be pressured to make peace with Russia, thought a majority of the inhabitants of Hungary, Greece, Italy and Romania.
Substantial minorities in Austria (49.4 percent), Germany (41 percent), the Netherlands (36.7 percent), Spain (33.1 percent) and Sweden (31.3 percent) agreed.
The EU's own measurements point to broad support for Ukraine – 60 percent, for example, are in favor of the EU purchasing and donating military equipment.
But regardless of which question is asked, support is weaker today than six months ago.
Geert Wilder's PPV in the Netherlands and Robert Fico's Smer in Slovakia are parties that recently won elections on the will to stop Ukraine support.
At the same time, Victor Orbán's Hungary is blocking several important aid packages for Ukraine, and there is not much the other EU leaders can do about it.
Issues are usually sorted sooner or later as conflicts on the right-left scale – and cohesion collapses from the edges.
EU-sceptic and populist parties are more likely to oppose Ukraine support.
It is therefore hardly surprising that it was precisely the party leader of the Sweden Democrats, Jimmie Åkesson, who was the first to test the idea that support has "an upper limit" in Swedish debate.
The risk is obvious that sooner or later the opposition to Ukraine support will begin to seep in from the right into the Sweden Democrats' party group ECR and also into the Moderates' and Christian Democrats' EPP.
It will not happen immediately.
But if the forecasts are correct, after the election the EPP may need or want to seek support further to the right, and once the debate ball is in motion, the process may become self-reinforcing.
Ukraine-skeptic parties advancing in the EU elections could use it as a springboard to further twist the debate in their own countries.
Skepticism in the population can lead to increased negativity from parties that chase this opinion, which further reinforces the skepticism.
The mortar has started to weather, but it is in November that the demolition ball can come whining with full force.
If Donald Trump wins the US presidential election, it could be the end of US support for Ukraine.
The risk is then imminent that Europe's support will also expire.
Even now, only 20 percent of Europeans want Europe to increase its support if the US cuts back(7 percent i Greece and 43 percent in Sweden are the extremes).
All is not dark for Ukraine.
Trump could still lose. The EU's centrist parties may fare better than expected. The parties on the right can manage to hold the line against the fringe opinion.
Trump could still lose. The EU's centrist parties may fare better than expected. The parties on the right can manage to hold the line against the fringe opinion.
But there is a risk that Ukraine's brave soldiers will still hold the military front when they see the political front in the West collapsing behind them.
FACTS
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