Wolfgang Hansson
This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.
Updated 21.57 | Published 21.54
So far, all the charges against Donald Trump have most likely strengthened his position in the voter opinion.
But the accepted truth that he only benefits from the legal battles may soon turn into its opposite.
What will happen when the American people hear all the dirty details from Trump's former gunman Michael Cohen and porn star Stormy Daniels?
Quick version
In the preliminary talk, the first trial against Trump has been considered the least dangerous.
Trump is accused of having paid the porn star SEK 1.5 million to keep her quiet about their affair. The aim was to increase Trump's chances of victory in the 2016 election.
The indictment itself is formally about an accounting offence. In contrast to the other charges of conspiring to overthrow American democracy or taking secret documents from the White House, it appears rather trivial.
But as always, the devil is hidden in the details.
Four days a week for the next few months, Donald Trump will be sitting in the courtroom instead of being out on a campaign tour. Since no cameras are allowed in the courtroom, his opportunities to turn the trial into a show are limited.
On the first day of the trial, Judge Juan Merchan impressed that Trump risks being thrown in jail if he does not obey these calls.
Trump answered a blunt yes when asked if he understood the seriousness of the so-called "gag order".
Seriously, it could already be almost a week when the court will examine whether he has already broken the court's order on three occasions in statements he posted on his social network Truth Social.
It will be a few weeks before the trial gets underway in earnest as it is considered difficult to assemble an impartial jury of 12 people. Of the hundred prospective jurors who had to answer questions yesterday, more than half disappeared immediately because they themselves admitted that they had preconceived notions about the ex-president.
Just the sheer effort of sitting so many days in a courtroom will have a price on the soon-to-be 78-year-old Trump. Hans looked tired already on day one and seemed to doze off from time to time, according to testimony from inside the courtroom.
One of the prosecution's main witnesses is Michael Cohen, a lawyer who for a number of years served as Trump's lawyer and "fixer". He was the one who made sure that the $130,000 that Stormy Daniels received to keep quiet was paid out. Money that Trump then repaid to Cohen.
Today, Cohen has nothing left for Trump. He will not shy away from telling everything he knows about the ex-president's actions in the Daniels case and perhaps in other matters as well.
Cohen's story is sure not to portray Trump in any bright colors.
We will only know exactly how bad it will be when Cohen has testified. But his testimony definitely poses a major risk to Trump.
The same goes for porn star Stormy Daniels who claims she and Trump had an affair. She, too, is likely to testify. There, less flattering private details about Trump can also emerge. We will only know how harmful these will be in retrospect.
Playboy model Karen McDougal, with whom Trump also allegedly had an affair and was paid to remain silent, is also expected to testify.
The majority of Americans have long been aware of Trump's lack of morals and shortcomings. But the fact that Trump cheated while his wife Melania was pregnant with the couple's son will make some conservatives frown.
We also don't know if the prosecutor has any unknown cards up his sleeve in the form of other witnesses.
All in all, the trial is far from harmless for Donald Trump.
That is why for the longest time he has tried to postpone it to the future. Which he succeeded in doing for the other charges.
Judgment before the election
Now he becomes the first former US president to be charged with a crime.
If the expected timetable holds, they will fall before the presidential election in November.
A conviction could mean a significant voter loss. In polls, a third of independent and Republican voters say they would not vote for Trump if he were convicted of a crime. What they then do in practice is impossible to know.
But in a situation where it is very even between him and Joe Biden, it could have an impact on the outcome.
At the same time, an acquittal could have the opposite effect and give Trump extra votes.
Formally, there are no obstacles for Trump to be elected president even if he is convicted. But the question is whether a majority of the American people can imagine voting for a convicted criminal to rule the world's superpower.
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