Could cost Trump the presidency

 

Donald Trump
The verdict could cost Trump the presidency

Wolfgang Hansson

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.

Updated 11.04 | Published 01.01

The conviction against Donald Trump could cost him the presidency.

It is enough for a few percent of voters to change their attitude for Trump to lose.

A former US president has never before been convicted of a crime in modern times. Even if he avoids prison, it could have a big impact on his chances in the election.
 

Quick version

• Former US President Donald Trump has been convicted in a criminal case, which could affect his chances of winning the upcoming election.
• Only 5% of Republican voters changing their minds could cause Trump to lose, especially in the crucial swing states where he previously held the lead.
•  Although the punishment is likely to be a fine rather than jail time, the ruling could damage Trump's reputation and campaign, especially since that sentence comes just before the Republican National Convention.

Opinion polls on hypothetical issues are notoriously unreliable. But given that 20-30 percent of Republican voters previously said they could not imagine voting for a president convicted of a crime, the risk is obvious that the conviction could have fatal consequences for Trump.
 

It is one thing to answer a question before all the facts are known. But given how close it seems to be before the November 5 election, it is enough that five percent of Republican voters no longer believe it is possible to vote for Trump for him to have a very difficult time winning the election.

So far, the charges seem to have emboldened Trump, but a criminal conviction is another matter entirely. Photo: Steven Hirsch/AP

It is a few swing states (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and New Mexico) that determine who wins the election. There, the last election separated only a few tens of thousands of votes between Biden and Trump. Even very small changes could wipe out Trump's lead in the polls in these states and turn it into a loss.

Trump's core voters will not abandon him, but he needs everything, even some middle voters, to win the election

So far, it appears the impeachment has strengthened Trump rather than hurt him.

But a conviction in a criminal case is a completely different matter.

He is the man who, like the breakout king Houdini, made it through years of legal battles unscathed. Now he suddenly stood there with his pants down.

Trump looked very shaken and hollow-eyed after the verdict was announced.

If he had seen a conviction as something positive for the electoral movement, he would have reacted differently.

In his first comments, Trump called the verdict shameful. He claimed that it was Biden who was behind the prosecution and that the judge was hostile.

But it wasn't the judge who made the decision. It was a jury of twelve people who unanimously found Trump guilty on all 34 charges. They also reached their decision very quickly.

Now it remains to be seen what the punishment for Trump will be. Because he is a first-time offender, many American experts believe a prison sentence is unlikely. Trump can get away with fines and probation. But it cannot hide the fact that he was convicted of deliberately trying to mislead the American people before the 2016 election.

The jury convicted Trump Photo: Jon Elswick / AP

It doesn't look very good, to put it mildly, although Trump and the party will try to spin the verdict as part of the establishment witch hunt against the ex-president.

But it is becoming part of a rather tiresome rhetoric that very few besides Trump's core voters believe.

At the same time, it should not be underestimated that Trump has so far managed to turn the four indictments against him to his advantage. Perhaps he can once again benefit from the role of victim.

Another part of the equation is President Joe Biden. He is hated by the majority of Republican voters, but also many Democrats think he is no longer fit to do his job due to his advanced age.

The election will largely be a question of which of the two candidates you dislike the least. Then the verdict against Trump can fade.

 

The reason he had his lawyer Michael Cohen pay porn star Stormy Daniels SEK 1.3 million was that he wanted to hide their sexual relationship. He was afraid of losing the election if it came out.

Extra piquancy will be that the punishment will be announced on July 11, just a few days before the Republican Party Convention begins. There, the cream of the Republican party will formally appoint Trump as the party's presidential candidate, while he may have just been sentenced to a fine or prison.

President Biden has previously declined to comment on the lawsuit. But yesterday he stated that no one is above the law. At the same time, Biden pointed out that Trump will be the Republican candidate and that it is at the ballot box that he must be defeated if Trump is not to be able to move into the White House again.

Trump outside the courtroom after the jury's announcement. On the left, his lawyer Alina Habba. Photo: Steven Hirsch/AP

It is also worth remembering that the case has so far only been tried in the first instance. Trump will definitely appeal the verdict. It is doubtful whether a final decision will be made before the presidential election.

The other three charges against Trump are considered more serious. They are about his role in the storming of the Capitol, how he tried to change the results of the election in Georgia and that he took top secret documents with him when he left the White House.

But the probability that any of these will go to trial for the presidential election is very small. If Trump wins the election, he can order the Justice Department to drop the charges.

Trump is definitely not calculated, but his path to the White House has suddenly become significantly more crooked.

Photo: Nora Savosnick