Apartheid
30 years after liberation, the ANC is losing ground in South Africa
Wolfgang Hansson
This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.
Published 20.18
Nowadays, most parties in the world can only dream of getting 50 percent of the vote in democratic elections.
For the South African ANC and President Cyril Ramaphosa, losing their absolute majority would be a catastrophic defeat.
If the polls are right, that's exactly what will happen.
Quick version
At the same time, it meant the end of white supremacy and the apartheid system of racial discrimination.
Millions of South Africans were convinced that not only political freedom but also economic prosperity awaited. At least then, the country was Africa's richest.
30 years later, many people are disappointed.
True, there are no longer reserved carriages for whites on the trains or park benches with the text "Whites only" as when I visited the country for the first time in 1987. But the prosperity the white population enjoyed then has not reached the great mass of the majority population.
Much of the economic power still rests with white corporations. Much of the farmland is still owned by white farmers.
The economic boom that many expected after liberation never got off the ground. A number of enterprising black businessmen with good connections did become rich and were highlighted as examples of a successful transition from white rule. But deep down, very little has happened.
Today unemployment is sky high, officially over 30 percent but in reality significantly higher among the black population. The majority do not earn enough to meet their daily needs.
During apartheid, violence was ever-present as white police cracked down on protests in the black shantytowns demanding an end to the system of racial segregation.
Today, violence still affects blacks in the form of extremely widespread criminality. Year after year, South Africa ranks among the highest in the world in terms of the number of murders.
Even more mundane problems plague almost all South Africans regardless of skin color. The recurring power outages have become so common that many today see it as natural that there is only electricity during certain parts of the day.
Coincidentally, the planned power outages ended a few months before the election.
Authorities and power companies are running diesel generators at full blast to attract more votes to the ANC, critics claim, while those in power say increased investment in the electricity system is behind the sudden improvements.
Most are convinced that the power outages will return as soon as the election is over.
The fact that it did not turn out as well as many had hoped is partly connected to extensive corruption. Ministers, heads of authorities and others with influence have over the years shot themselves at the public's expense.
South Africa has also suffered from a lack of competent leaders since Nelson Mandela retired in 1999. It was particularly bad under Jacob Zuma. Corruption skyrocketed and he more or less leased the country's economy to some Indian businessmen with disastrous consequences.
The attempts to remove Zuma led to a split in the ANC that remains. Ahead of this year's elections held tomorrow, Wednesday, Zuma has formed his own party.
He has named it Umkhonto wesizwe, which was the name of the ANC's armed wing during the liberation struggle. A way to mock the ANC and at the same time ride on their former popularity.
Just nine days before the election, a South African court ruled that Zuma cannot run. He was sentenced in 2021 for contempt of court to 15 months in prison and is therefore not allowed to sit in parliament.
Despite that, his image remains on the party's election posters. MK hopes Zuma will be able to give them votes regardless. The opinion polls give the party 10 percent. A lot of them come from disaffected ANC voters.
In all six elections held since liberation, the ANC has won an absolute majority. In the 2019 election, the party received 57 percent.
Long shot
Opinion polls ahead of this year's elections show that voter confidence is failing. According to some surveys, the party only reaches about 40 percent. Most parties in the world would be very happy with that. For the ANC, anything below 50 percent is a serious miscalculation that likely means that the otherwise relatively popular President Cyril Ramaphosa is forced to resign.
Admittedly, the ANC would probably still manage to retain a large part of power by cooperating with one of the smaller parties. But for the ANC's self-image it would be a heavy blow.
The Democratic Alliance is the largest opposition party. They are still labeled as the party of the whites even though a majority of their voters are now black.
That they would succeed in taking power must be seen as a long shot, however.
The ANC may be greatly weakened, but they still have support that most other parties can only dream of.
Perhaps it is not the fact that the party can fall below 50 percent that is the story, but that after so long in power they still have half the population behind them.
Inga kommentarer:
Skicka en kommentar