Russia's invasion of Ukraine
This is how Zelensky's visit shows the way to victory
Niclas Vent
Reporter
This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.
Published 19.00
In its third year, the Ukraine war is still weighing.
Now the road to victory is via a psychological game at the absolute highest level.
Therefore, Zelensky's visit to Stockholm is a clear step in Ukraine's new plan to win.
Quick version
A year ago, there was still hope that the war against Russia could be decided on the battlefield.
But Ukraine's long-awaited counter-offensive launched in June 2023 failed.
Since then, the war has taken even more the form of a war of attrition.
Despite the latest Russian offensive, neither side continues to look capable of defeating the other militarily.
Everything is now about holding on and persevering. Produce so much materiel and inflict such high losses on the adversary that his political, economic and moral ability to continue the war collapses.
Wars typically end not because one side wins - but because the other side no longer sees a path to victory.
So what the leaders think will happen in the future is at least as decisive as what is happening right now.
Zelenskuyj met the Nordic leaders during the visit to Stockholm. Photo: Jerker Ivarsson
It is in that light that President Zelensky's latest European tour, which arrived in Stockholm today, should be seen:
- In Spain on Monday, he signed a security deal worth 1 billion euros in military aid by 2024, including promises for more Patriot robots and Leopard 2 tanks.
- In Belgium on Tuesday morning, he was promised another 1 billion euros in military aid in 2024, as well as 30 F-16 planes, to be delivered by 2028.
- In Portugal, on Tuesday evening, he signed a third security agreement,
which spans ten years and will provide at least 126 million euros in
military support this year.
When Sweden, Norway and Iceland in Stockholm today signed their own ten-year cooperation agreement with Ukraine, it means that the entire Nordic region has similar agreements in place.
All in all, according to the current plan, Sweden will have supported Ukraine with SEK 105 billion by 2026.
The long term signals a significant shift.
During the first years of the war, many Western countries began frantically rummaging through their rather modest stockpiles of war materiel, sending what they found.
Those possibilities are now starting to run out.
The Swedish Armed Forces, for example, assess that there is no more in the stores to give away.
Just sending gadget after gadget without any overall plan – Sweden has managed to complete 16 separate military support packages – has probably been difficult to avoid, but it has also come with many disadvantages. This has made it difficult for Ukraine to plan, and the many different types of weapons have created a logistical nightmare.
But the biggest problem is that the ad hoc packages have not affected Russia's strategic calculus.
This is where the new long-term security agreements come in.
Ukraine is completely dependent on Western support. Therefore, Russia's obvious path to victory is to grind until our willingness to help has run its course.
The agreements are more about trying to convince Putin that it won't happen.
Inga kommentarer:
Skicka en kommentar