Iran's response to the attack will be decisive

Benjamin Netanyahu

Dangerous escalation that increases the risk of full-scale war

Wolfgang Hansson

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.

Published 20.54

Dangerous escalation is a mild characterization of Israel's attack on Iran's consulate in Damascus.

It seems that Benjamin Netanyahu is prepared to do pretty much anything to keep the war going.

The danger is that Iran's response fuels the spiral of violence and increases the risk of a full-scale war in the Middle East.

It's a war that everyone involved says they don't want. But which at the same time creeps ever closer due to the actions of the parties involved.

Attacking a diplomatic mission in another country is an extreme measure and a violation of international law.

Although Israel did not claim responsibility for the attack on the Iranian consulate in the Syrian capital Damascus, it is difficult to see who else would be behind it. Aside from the US, not many nations have the capability and interest to carry out such a precision attack.

The act is in practice an attack on Iranian territory. Embassies and consulates shall enjoy international protection. That it is respected is a prerequisite for even enemies to be able to have diplomatic relations with each other.

This is why the attack on the consulate is extra sensitive. Quite apart from the fact that it appears to have killed a number of very high ranking military personnel.

Israel may have received intelligence about an impending military action against Israel, or they simply took the opportunity to kill a number of high-ranking military personnel who were in the same location.

Whatever the motive, it's a very risky strategy. What prevents Iran from attacking Israeli missions abroad in the future?

It is far from the first time an embassy or consulate has been attacked, but every time it happens it means a basic shot at diplomacy as a way to resolve conflicts peacefully.
 
An interesting detail in the context is whether Israel informed the US in advance of its plans. President Biden has been very clear that he does not want to see the war in Gaza develop into a major regional war.

But Netanyahu has shown time and time again that he doesn't think he needs to care what the US president says. Which appears to be a correct analysis if the information is correct that Biden approved a new major arms shipment to Israel while warning the Israeli prime minister not to expand the offensive in Gaza.

The question is how Iran responds.

Will the ayatollahs in Tehran try to use the attack to further isolate Israel diplomatically or will they try to retaliate militarily?

The former would probably be more effective in weakening Israel's position, but the question is whether those in power in Iran think it is enough to avoid being perceived as weak and evasive.

Israel and Iran are mortal enemies.

Iran's stated goal has long been for Israel to cease to exist as a Jewish state.

Israel sees Iran's attempts to acquire nuclear weapons as a threat to its own existence.

On Monday, the Iranian consulate in Damascus was attacked. Photo: Omar Sanadiki / AP

However,Iran has so far avoided getting into direct military confrontation with Israel. Instead, they have used proxies, so-called proxy groups, in the form of Hizbollah in southern Lebanon, the Assad regime in Syria and the Huthi rebels in Yemen.

Both Hezbollah and the Huthi rebels have, since Israel began its war in Gaza, in response to the Hamas terrorist attack on October 7 last year, attacked Israel in different ways.

Hezbollah with rockets against northern Israel and the Huthi rebels with attacks directly against Israel but above all against international shipping in the Red Sea.

Hezbollah has the capacity to attack even Tel Aviv and further south but has so far refrained for fear of a major Israeli attack on Lebanon.

Will Iran now encourage Hezbollah to launch a large-scale attack on Israel?

Most observers do not believe that Iran would attack Israel directly.

Iran can also do it for the West and create chaos in the world economy by blocking oil and fossil gas traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Benjamin Netanyahu seems unconcerned about the consequences of the consulate attack. The impression is that his goal is to keep the Gaza war going as long as possible and thus avoid a new election which he would almost certainly lose.