fredag 24 maj 2024

If Sunak succeeds, he should get the Achievement Gold

 

Rishi Sunak
If Sunak can do this, he should get the achievement medal


Wolfgang Hansson

This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.

Published 17.56
Regnet öste ner över Rishi Sunak när han utlyste nyval i onsdags.
The rain poured down on Rishi Sunak when he announced new elections on Wednesday. Photo: Stefan Rousseau/AP
The British Prime Minister has an impossible task ahead of him.

If he succeeds against all odds in winning the election, Svenska Dagbladet's jury should make an exception and award Rishi Sunak the Achievement Medal.

Everything points to the fact that after the 4th of July the country will be ruled by Labor leader Keir Starmer.

Quick version
Sunak's starting position was well captured by the rain that literally poured down on an unprotected prime minister as he announced outside 10 Downing Street that there would be a new election on July 4.

The image of Sunak as a drowned cat illustrates that it can't get much worse.

The only question is how he will be able to take in the gigantic lead that Labor has in the opinion polls.

Many were taken to bed by Sunak's message. According to the advance tips, they would only be in October-November.

Sunak had until January next year before he had to call new elections. But instead of dragging out the process for the longest time and hoping that the situation would miraculously change, he chose to take a chance. The judgments of British experts vary between genius and folly

Presumably, Sunak reasons like this:
  • Inflation, after being up to double digits, is back down to just over two percent. It shows that the British economy has turned around. A success he can show. The Bank of England has not put any interest rate cuts in perspective in the near term, so he would not have been able to jump on that stimulus even if he had waited a few months.
  • The government's plan to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda to have their case tried there has been set in motion. At best, the first flights take off before the election. Stopping illegal migration is one of the most important election issues and with the Rwanda plan it at least looks like the government is doing something to stop the rubber boats crossing the English Channel.         
For many months, opinion polls have shown a huge lead for the largest opposition party, Labour. In recent surveys, the lead ranges from 27 percentage points to 20.

No British government in modern times has managed to be re-elected if they have lost by ten percentage points or more.

Now Britain finds itself in a situation where the Conservatives have ruled for 14 years. The last ten have been an extremely turbulent period. Not least because of Brexit and its aftermath.

A majority of the British wanted to leave the EU but based their opinion on false election promises from Boris Johnson and the other Brexiteers who painted gold and green forests as long as the yoke from Brussels was released.

Instead, it has become as many experts previously feared. The British economy has weakened. The shelves in many stores have been empty when what could previously be easily imported from the EU is now stuck at the border.

Today, opinion polls show that people have changed their minds. A clear majority had wanted to remain in the EU. Perhaps the voters hope that Labor will be able to take a few steps back.

As a result of Brexit, the Conservatives have continued to be rocked by internal strife and division.

One reason why Sunak surprisingly announced new elections already now may have been that he feared being deposed by his own party in a vote of no confidence.
Labourledaren Keir Starmer.
Labor leader Keir Starmer. Photo: Gareth Fuller/AP
In addition to the internal quarrels, the party has also had leaders who did not measure up. Boris Johnson's handling of the pandemic turned into a disaster for the party.

When he was finally deposed and Liz Truss was elected, the country fell from the ashes into the fire. She was forced to resign in record time after sinking the country's economy.

Sunak has tried to steady the ship with some respected cards such as Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt and Foreign Secretary David Cameron.

Now, in six weeks, he will try to convince the British that he can implement the change they so desperately want.

Even conservative observers agree that it is not only a difficult task but a "mission impossible".

Sunak got a little help on the trot when Nigel Farage, the man who forced the Brexit referendum, announced yesterday that he will not stand in the election. He would otherwise have been a threat from the right against Sunak.
 
Keir Starmer has managed to return Labor to the center of politics after a flight to the far left under Marxist Jeremy Corbyn. But Labour's lead depends more on the Conservatives' constant self-targeting than on the jurist Starmer being particularly charismatic or beloved. Corbyn is also running as an independent candidate in the election. He poses no real threat to Labor due to the British electoral system which favors the major parties but on the margins may have picked up some Labor votes.

Regardless, Sunak must pull off a minor miracle if he is to remain in office after the election.

I know that SvD's achievement medal is only awarded to Swedish sportsmen. But if Sunak wins the election, it's a performance at a level that should prompt the jury to make an exception.
 

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