Gaza
Biden's headache refuses to go away
Wolfgang Hansson
This is a commenting text. Analysis and positions are the writer's.
Published 22.14
If there is anything that is high on President Biden's wish list right now, it is an end to the war in Gaza and the student protests in the United States that are a consequence of it.
Together, they form a toxic cocktail that risks spoiling Biden's chances of remaining in the presidency.
Quick version
Unfortunately for Biden, it doesn't look like his wishes are about to pan out. On the contrary.
Student protests have intensified in recent days. At several top universities, they have degenerated into outright riots between students and police or between pro-Palestinian and pro-Israeli students.
The semester is coming to an end at the universities, but that does not automatically mean that the protests will end. There are many indications that the students will continue with actions on campus or alternatively in parks near the universities.
With the protests comes a debate about police brutality and the limits of freedom of expression.
It could be a long and hot summer in the US.
The students also demand that the universities report what contacts they have with Israel and Israeli companies and end these. But they also point the finger at the US government and this support for Israel.
Congress recently decided on a multibillion-dollar aid package for Israel. This is in addition to the SEK 30 billion in military and financial support that the US gives to Israel every year.
Without the weapons from the US, Israel would not be able to continue its war in Gaza at the level it is doing today.
Protests at UCLA in California.
1 / 2Photo: Ryan Sun / AP
Balance act
For the longest time, Joe Biden has tried to balance between giving Israel his strong support but at the same time demanding from Prime Minister Netanyahu that Israel's military do more to protect Palestinian civilians and bring more humanitarian aid into the war-torn enclave.
But anger over Israel's indiscriminate bombing and killing of civilians continues to grow in the United States.
A comparison in the New York Times of the state of public opinion before and after the Gaza war began is grim reading for Biden. Before the war, he led by 29 percentage points over Trump, 61-32, in the 18-34 age group.
Today, that lead has shrunk sharply, 45 percent against 41.
The young were an absolutely crucial voter group when Biden won the 2020 presidential election.
But the dissatisfaction is not only among students but among democratic voters in general.
Both want to see Biden more forcefully distance himself from the way Israel is waging the war, threatening to stop arms exports unless the country agrees to a ceasefire that allows more food, medicine and other supplies to be brought in.
But should Biden do so, he risks alienating the many voters, even within the Democrats, who believe that Israel must have the right to defend itself and once and for all defeat the terrorist group Hamas.
Refugee camp near Rafah. Photo: AP
Threatening ground offensive
Biden's hope is that the war ends well before the presidential election in November. Preferably already before summer.
A good sign is that the latest attempts to bring about a ceasefire look more hopeful than before. For Netanyahu, a temporary pause in the fighting would provide an opportunity to bring home at least a number of the Israeli hostages still held by Hamas. It would bring him domestic political gains.
But ceasefire talks have been going on for months without anything happening, so it's impossible to say whether Hamas and Israel will succeed in unifying this time.
Negative for Biden is that only a few days ago Netanyahu threatened to launch a ground offensive in Rafah, the part of southern Gaza where 1.5 million Palestinians have taken refuge.
According to Israel, the goal of such an offensive is to knock out the remaining 4-5 brigades of Hamas militiamen believed to be hiding in the tunnel system around Rafah.
But such an offensive would almost certainly result in a large number of civilian casualties. Which would once again increase the international anger against Israel. Especially during the student protests in the USA.
Which would be very bad news for Biden.
Advantage Trump
Many of the young people in the protests but also among people with roots in the Middle East say they cannot vote for Biden if he continues to unilaterally support Israel.
How they will really act on November 5 is impossible to know.
I find it hard to imagine that they will vote for Trump instead.
Rather, it is abstention, which would benefit Trump as Biden loses votes in key states.
Alternatively, they cast their vote for one of the independent candidates who, although they have no chance of winning, but who can sabotage Biden in states where the margin of victory between the two main candidates can be as little as 10,000 votes, as in Georgia and Arizona in the 2020 election .
If the war in Gaza is still going on when the fall semester starts in the US, the chance/risk of Donald Trump winning the presidential election increases.
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